Sunday, 4 July 2010

Projections of Population Growth for Britain

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The official projections from the Office of National Statistics for the population size in the years ahead appear to have a serious flaw.

Using spreadsheet calculations and taking into account the different birth rates, mortality rates and migration, a number of projections are calculted for various policy scenarios.

The following scenarios have been modelled:

Scenario 1: Initial assumption of reduced immigration
Scenario 2: Indigenous birth rate 0.8 per woman
Scenario 3: Balanced migration
Scenario 4: Zero immigration
Scenario 5: Zero immigration and zero emigration
Scenario 6: Zero immigration, birth rates NINM 1.5 indigenous 1.5
Scenario 7: Zero immigration, Encourage Muslim emigration
Scenario 8: Trends under Labour Government if continued indefinitely

At some point in the future we will have no choice but to live sustainably.  Renewable energy sources will be the only ones available.  These are a much more diffuse form of energy compared to the concentrated energy of fossil fuels and nuclear fission.  There is also a finite land area available for food production.  Arable crop productivity is likely to decline as fossil fuels become more expensive.

The sustainable population size for Britain is around 20 million.  A responsible Government would put in place measures to stop encouraging the growth of the population.  Can they not see the scope for problems?

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